Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way
Part 1: Introduction to Probability Chapter 1: Bayesian thinking and everyday reasoning The central theme of this chapter: Data informs beliefs; belief should not inform data Let’s consider two world views in regard to data: (Ideal framework): “the probability of data given my hypothesis and experience in the world” or “how well do my beliefs explain the world?” (not ideal): “the probability of my beliefs given the data and my experience in the world” or “how well what I observe supports what I believe” The first case is where we change our beliefs according ot he data...